Ahead of IDEF, the Kensington Treaty signals that the UK is ready to overcome Germany’s long-standing block on Eurofighter exports to Turkiye.

The Kensington Treaty signed on 17 July between the United Kingdom and Germany marks a strategic turning point not only for European defence, but also for Turkiye’s long-stalled procurement of Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft. Backed by the UK’s firm political will and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s remarks that talks are “progressing in a positive direction,” the treaty is widely seen as an effort to pave the way for Berlin to lift its unofficial embargo on exports to Ankara.

The UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain all work together to make the Eurofighter. This means that all four countries must agree on any export transaction. As part of its attempts to modernise its air force, Turkey has been talking about buying up to 40 Eurofighters.

However, Germany’s political reservations had put the process into limbo for several months. Recent developments surrounding the treaty now point to a renewed momentum just ahead of the IDEF defence fair in Istanbul.

A historic agreement opens a new chapter

The Kensington Treaty is the first comprehensive bilateral agreement signed between the UK and Germany since the end of the Second World War. Signed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Friedrich Merz in London, the agreement covers a wide range of cooperation areas including defence, migration, trade, education and cultural exchange.

While both countries already fall under NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence obligations, the treaty reinforces bilateral military ties. It commits the UK and Germany to joint defence development and export coordination for systems such as the Typhoon fighter and the Boxer armoured vehicle, as well as the development of a next-generation long-range missile. It also includes plans for the German drone manufacturer Stark to establish a facility in the UK to support Ukraine’s defence efforts.

BAE Systems silent, but signs of hope emerge

One of the most important companies in the Eurofighter consortium, BAE Systems, has not said anything publicly concerning the future of manufacturing at its Warton base in northern England. Trade unions are worried that portions of the Typhoon production lines might be shut down in the 2030s if fresh export orders don't come in.  Company officials, however, have recently hinted at renewed optimism.

Richard Hamilton, Managing Director for Europe and International at BAE Systems Air, stated that he is “absolutely confident” in new orders from countries such as Turkiye, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. “The UK’s commitment to upgrading Typhoon capabilities sends a strong signal to potential customers. It shows that the aircraft has a future,” he said, suggesting that negotiations with Turkiye and other partners have seen “significant progress.”

Migration, education, and cultural links

Beyond defence, the treaty addresses key non-military issues. Germany has pledged to amend its domestic legislation by the end of the year to criminalise the facilitation of migrant smuggling towards the UK. Chancellor Merz has also proposed expanding the existing Anglo-French migrant returns agreement into a trilateral pact including Germany.

In education and cultural exchange, the treaty introduces practical measures such as allowing UK passport holders to use German e-gates, abolishing visa requirements for student exchange visits, and establishing a joint rail task force to plan a direct London–Berlin train link.

A new European alignment

As Chancellor Merz put it, this treaty is “long overdue.” Though he reiterated his regret over Brexit—“I personally deplore this deeply”—he acknowledged that a closer alignment between Europe’s three major powers, the UK, France and Germany, is now vital. Starmer described the deal as “a statement of our ambition to work ever more closely together.”

The broader message is clear: with uncertainty over America’s future commitment to NATO, the E3 powers are stepping up. And for Turkiye, the diplomatic groundwork laid by the Kensington Treaty may finally clear the way for the long-awaited Eurofighter deal.

Author:Özgür Ekşi