A recent report by Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy examines Europe’s future defence capabilities in case of a US withdrawal.
The study emphasises the military manpower of the continent, extra soldier requirements, and financial demands. Official statistics show that the United States has over 80,000 troops stationed in Europe. Should a war arise, this figure is predicted to at least treble. In contrast, European national armies collectively have around 1.5 million personnel, significantly more than the current US force in the region.
However, the report estimates that if Washington were to withdraw its troops, Europe would require an additional 300,000 soldiers or approximately 50 brigades. In other words, 80,000 US troops produce equal force to 300,000 European soldiers. Alexandr Burilkov, one of the report’s authors, told Euronews that these additional forces would partly be recruited through compulsory military service and reinforced by a large and well-trained reserve force, similar to the US National Guard model.
Russia’s Expanding Defence Investments The report also highlights Russia’s growing military expenditure and modernisation efforts, emphasising their impact on European security. 2024 Russia is estimated to have produced or upgraded 1,550 tanks, 5,700 armoured vehicles, and 450 artillery systems.
Further improving their offensive capacity are 1,800 long-range Lancet hovering missiles Russian troops use. These numbers highlight Russia’s continuous military growth as well as possible consequences for European security policies.
Budgetary Considerations for European Defence The Bruegel-Kiel report suggests that Europe could enhance its defence capabilities by increasing military spending by €125 billion to €250 billion annually in the short term, equating to 3.5 per cent of GDP. The report proposes that this spending boost would be financed through debt mechanisms.
